2021

Journal Article - Link (English) - 2021

This paper examines the global rise in vessel size and predicts the arrival of larger ships on South American coasts. Analyzing data since 2006, it identifies factors driving the trend towards larger ships (18,000-24,000 TEU). The study highlights infrastructure, economics, technology, and environmental factors as key drivers. Using models with thresholds of 1310 ft LOA and 18,000 TEU, the paper applies an econometrics methodology to Latin American trade, emphasizing the need for strategic infrastructure planning and investments to address issues like economies of scale, concentration, and entry barriers. Efficient medium-term planning in the port industry is crucial for maximizing economic impact.

Working Paper - Link (English) - 2021

This research examines the export trajectory of Latin America and the Caribbean in the U.S. market over nearly two decades following China's accession to the WTO, comparing it with China and other regions. Using product-level import data from the U.S. Census Bureau, covering over 30,000 products annually from nearly 200 countries, the study finds that most Latin American countries lost market share between 2002 and 2018. Mexico, however, increased its share by 17 percentage points. Asia, now the second-largest exporter region to the U.S. after the OECD, significantly increased its market presence. China and Mexico gained the most market share. Additionally, Latin American exports differ from China's in the U.S. market, suggesting limited direct competition. Latin America also specializes more in high-value segments than China.

Journal Article - Link (English) - 2021

This article analyzes Argentina's GDP cycles over the past 40 years using both classic and growth cycle approaches. Both methods yield similar results regarding the number, duration, and intensity of cycles, as well as the ratio of expansions to contractions. Based on established selection criteria in the literature, this study highlights the Christiano and Fitzgerald (CF) filter as particularly effective for detrending Argentina's GDP series.