Working Papers

Working Paper - Link (English) - 2025

This study examines the role of green, social, sustainable, and sustainability-linked (GSSS) bonds in financing the energy transition in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It combines a descriptive assessment of sectoral bond issuance patterns from 2014 to 2024 with an econometric exercise focusing on the region’s top five issuers. The results indicate that GSSS bonds have contributed to the expansion of renewable energy capacity but have not yet produced a structural shift in the overall energy mix. These findings underscore both the opportunities and limitations of sustainable finance, highlighting the importance of complementary policies, market reforms, and effective governance to maximize its transformative potential.

Working Paper - Link (English) - 2025

Financing the transition to a green economy in Latin America and the  Caribbean demands innovative approaches to address the region’s significant investment gap, estimated at 7%–11% of GDP annually by 2050. This publication focuses on the financial strategies underpinning green productive development policies, which make up a transformative and comprehensive framework that integrates economic goals with environmental sustainability.

Key insights include strategies to reallocate subsidies, lower capital costs and foster private sector investment through blended finance and institutional capital. Innovative tools like green, social and sustainability-linked bonds have emerged as pivotal instruments to channel investments into priority areas and must be enhanced. However, in order to scale up sustainable financing, systemic barriers such as underdeveloped financial markets, regulatory inefficiencies and macroeconomic instability must be addressed. This report also emphasizes the role of robust governance and regional collaboration in optimizing resource allocation, and offers actionable recommendations that provide policymakers and stakeholders with a financial road map to harness green productive development policies as a catalyst for sustainable, inclusive and resilient growth in the region. 

Working Paper - Link (English) - 2024

United States-Latin America and the Caribbean Trade Developments provides an overview of selected developments in trade relations between the United States and Latin America and the Caribbean.

Working Paper - Link (English) - 2023

United States-Latin America and the Caribbean Trade Developments provides an overview of selected developments in trade relations between the United States and Latin America and the Caribbean.

Working Paper- Link (English) - 2023

This document examines the evolution of Latin America and the Caribbean’s (LAC) international issuance of sustainable bonds - green, social, sustainability, and sustainability-linked bonds (GSSS) - since the first green bond was issued in December 2014. Cumulative international GSSS bond issuance reached $100 billion from 2014 to 2022. Four key trends are identified: GSSS bonds’ share of the region’s total international bond issuance rose from under 1% in 2018 to 32% in 2022. Initially dominated by green bonds, the region has diversified into sustainability and sustainability-linked bonds, which became predominant by 2021. Since Chile’s first sovereign international green bond in June 2019, sovereign issuances have driven the region’s sustainable bond market. A propensity score matching (PSM) analysis found a statistically significant “greenium,” indicating investors’ willingness to accept lower yields on GSSS bonds compared to conventional bonds, reflecting a commitment to social responsibility.

Working Paper- Link (Spanish) - 2022

Economic infrastructure in Latin America has shown a decreasing trend since the retraction of public infrastructure in the eighties. The reduction in investments favored an infrastructure gap that needs to be attended to. Recent concepts such as green infrastructure and natural capital should be considered when providing an effective response to the infrastructure gap. The present article deals with these issues.

Working Paper - Link (English) - 2022

This paper uses an augmented gravity trade model to examine the impact of Chinese exports to the United States on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) exports to the same market over the last two decades. The analysis relies on a sample of 33 LAC countries and trade data disaggregated to the 10-digit Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) level. The results show that the impact of Chinese exports on US imports from LAC is negative and statistically significant across model specifications and levels of aggregation in the trade data. The estimations show a displacement of LAC exports by China’s exports in the period under analysis of between 0.25 and 1.26 percent per percentage change in Chinese exports. In addition, the model suggests that after accounting for such export competition, Free Trade Agreements with the United States, on average, increased imports from LAC countries by up to 1.5 percent. That is, countries with a trade agreement with the US have an advantage over those without, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

Working Paper - Link (English) - 2021

This research examines the export trajectory of Latin America and the Caribbean in the U.S. market over nearly two decades following China's accession to the WTO, comparing it with China and other regions. Using product-level import data from the U.S. Census Bureau, covering over 30,000 products annually from nearly 200 countries, the study finds that most Latin American countries lost market share between 2002 and 2018. Mexico, however, increased its share by 17 percentage points. Asia, now the second-largest exporter region to the U.S. after the OECD, significantly increased its market presence. China and Mexico gained the most market share. Additionally, Latin American exports differ from China's in the U.S. market, suggesting limited direct competition. Latin America also specializes more in high-value segments than China.

Working Paper- Link (English) - 2018

The economic challenges in the Caribbean are significantly linked to the region’s external vulnerability. This paper examines financial flow trends in the context of strengthening the region's resilience, focusing on vulnerability, fragility, and resilience-building. Vulnerability is seen as a structural variable influenced by geography and economic forces, while fragility is a process variable characterized by institutional shortcomings and resource shortages. Building resilience is the most challenging aspect, involving the generation of net fund inflows, maintaining competitiveness, and enhancing citizens' well-being. The paper assesses trends in international capital flows, including portfolio flows and foreign direct investment, and explores strategies to improve access to external financing. It highlights the role of private flows and access to international debt markets, noting that private portfolio flows, though volatile and limited, could be enhanced through innovative instruments like debt swaps and green bonds alongside increased cooperation. The paper concludes with strategies for building resilience in the face of external vulnerability and restricted financing, emphasizing the connection between resilience and competitiveness and the importance of integration and convergence to foster regional cooperation.

Working Paper- Link (English) - 2018

This report examines the history of sovereign credit ratings in Latin America and the Caribbean, the evolution of credit quality, and the relationship between credit rating changes and the cost of accessing external financing as reflected in sovereign debt spreads. From 2003 to 2011, there was an upward trend in credit quality, leading to a sharp compression of bond spreads. However, after peaking in 2011, credit quality improvements stalled, and since 2013, sovereign credit quality in the region has slowly deteriorated. Using an event study methodology to estimate the impact of credit rating changes on sovereign bond spreads over the past fifteen years, the report finds an asymmetric impact: downgrades have a larger effect (103 basis points) than upgrades (-27 basis points). This impact varies by subregion, with South America and Mexico experiencing the most significant effects, and by time period, with the greatest impact from downgrades occurring between 2008 and 2012 and the most downgrades between 2013 and 2017. The findings confirm that sovereign credit quality significantly influences the cost of accessing private external financing.

Working Paper - Link (English) - 2018

Since the early 2000s, Latin America has seen significant improvements in income distribution, a notable shift in a region historically marked by persistent inequality. Despite variations across countries, this decline in inequality is due to labor market developments and more progressive government transfers. However, economic growth has slowed, reducing the pace of progress. To regain momentum, public policies must be reexamined to transform productive structures, advance human capital, and create high-quality jobs. ECLAC emphasizes that equality should be central to development, showing that reducing inequality and economic growth are compatible. This paper reviews recent inequality trends, explanatory factors, and the limited redistributive capacity of the region's tax systems.

Working Paper- Link (Spanish) - 2015

Public investment is a fundamental tool for the economies of Latin American and Caribbean countries. Therefore, it is essential to allocate limited public resources appropriately with transparent criteria and sound methodologies. This document summarizes general and sectoral methodologies used by countries in the region for social project assessments. The goal is to foster cooperation and technical support among the members of the National Public Investment Systems (SNIP) network.

Working Paper- Link (Spanish) - 2015

The National Public Investment Systems (SNIP) in Latin America has made significant progress in recent years, with more projects evaluated and higher unit costs approved. However, there are still areas for improvement, such as strengthening institutional frameworks, increasing access to information for civil society, expanding the use of social pricing in project evaluation, and providing continuous training for human capital. These findings, presented in this document, come from a 2014 survey of members of the SNIP Network, created in 2010 to strengthen these organizations through the exchange of experiences and cooperation.

Working Paper - Link (Spanish) - 2015

In the past decade, the production of gas and oil from shale formations has grown exponentially in the United States, a development that began in the 1970s due to energy bottlenecks. Although the price increases in the 2000s incentivized companies to invest in previously unprofitable resources, this explanation overlooks the crucial collaboration between the public sector, private sector, universities, and research centers. The public sector initiated the advances that enabled the development of extraction methods such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. This work explores the links between these actors, highlighting their role in the long-term success of the shale revolution.

Working Paper - Link (Spanish) - 2014

Development planning in Latin America and the Caribbean began systematically in the mid-20th century, spurred by the signing of the Punta del Este Charter in 1962. Over three decades, planning evolved with development, influenced by internal factors and changing international circumstances. However, planning lost relevance in the 1980s and 1990s due to the economic crisis and the adoption of neoliberal policies. In the 21st century, planning has reemerged as a key tool for integral development. This document analyzes the evolution of regional planning from its inception to the early 21st century.

Working Paper- Link (Spanish) - 2011

Economic infrastructure is crucial for reducing poverty and achieving sustained economic development. In recent years, investment in infrastructure in Latin America and the Caribbean has declined, creating a significant gap between needs and actual provision. This document uses alternative methodologies to quantify this gap and determines that an annual investment of around 5.2% of the regional GDP (approximately $170 billion in 2000 dollars) is needed to meet the demands of businesses and consumers between 2006 and 2020. To reach the per capita infrastructure levels of some Southeast Asian countries, the required investments would rise to 7.9% of GDP (about $260 billion in 2000 dollars) annually. The required effort is substantial given that observed investment in 2007-2008 was only 2% of GDP. However, adequately addressing these needs will be crucial for the region’s integration into the global economy in the 21st century and for improving the quality of life of its inhabitants.