Journal Articles

Journal Article - Link (English) - 2025

Over the last four decades, the provision of economic infrastructure in Latin America and the Caribbean has been marked by significant contrasts, reflecting the region's high political, economic, and social volatility. Despite notable progress, the region still faces substantial challenges compared to other regions and its domestic requirements. Limited information on quantitative and qualitative infrastructure indicators and investment hampers comprehensive analysis.

Research focused on the region highlights the critical role of infrastructure in promoting economic growth, reducing inequality, and alleviating poverty. Studies demonstrate that inadequate infrastructure investment has significantly hindered the region's economic development. Furthermore, there is a growing need to broaden the definition of infrastructure and improve its measurement to reflect its economic impact better.

To achieve long-term growth and development, the region must prioritize the adequate provision and access to infrastructure and its associated services in terms of quantity and quality within a framework of adequate and stable regulations. This approach aligns with the strategies of currently advanced economies and is essential for addressing the region's economic and social challenges.

Journal Article - Link (Spanish) - 2024

Over the past fifty years, the economic growth in Mexico has been slow and volatile, partly due to the fluctuating evolution of gross fixed capital formation, which is affected by economic performance, especially during recessive periods. This study, covering the period from 1980 to 2020, finds a positive and statistically significant, though small, relationship between public infrastructure investment (PII) and the growth of the private sector GDP. At the sectoral level, positive effects of PII are found in all sectors except for energy. The results indicate that PII alone cannot sustain economic growth but should be part of a comprehensive long-term strategy that includes partnerships with national and foreign private investments.

Journal Article - Link (English) - 2024

This article investigates export competition between China and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in the United States market between 2002 and 2022. Using a sample of 33 exporters and 10-digit Harmonised Tariff Schedule (HS) data, a structural gravity model is estimated. A first-order Taylor-series expansion à la Baier and Bergstrand (Journal of International Economics, 2009a, 77, 77) is used to approximate the multilateral price terms pointed out by Anderson and Van Wincoop (American Economic Review, 2003, 93, Article 1). The results show that the impact of Chinese exports on United States imports from LAC is negative and statistically significant across several model specifications, levels of aggregation, and sectors. A percentage increase in imports from China decreased imports from LAC by 0.75%. The displacement effect is 0.32 for manufacturing products, 1.01 for resource-based products, 1.33 when estimated only for South America, 0.25 for the Caribbean, and not significant for Central America.

Journal Article - Link (English) - 2021

This paper examines the global rise in vessel size and predicts the arrival of larger ships on South American coasts. Analyzing data since 2006, it identifies factors driving the trend towards larger ships (18,000-24,000 TEU). The study highlights infrastructure, economics, technology, and environmental factors as key drivers. Using models with thresholds of 1310 ft LOA and 18,000 TEU, the paper applies an econometrics methodology to Latin American trade, emphasizing the need for strategic infrastructure planning and investments to address issues like economies of scale, concentration, and entry barriers. Efficient medium-term planning in the port industry is crucial for maximizing economic impact.

Journal Article - Link (English) - 2021

This article analyzes Argentina's GDP cycles over the past 40 years using both classic and growth cycle approaches. Both methods yield similar results regarding the number, duration, and intensity of cycles, as well as the ratio of expansions to contractions. Based on established selection criteria in the literature, this study highlights the Christiano and Fitzgerald (CF) filter as particularly effective for detrending Argentina's GDP series.

Journal Article - Link (English) - 2019

In this study, we examine the history of sovereign credit ratings in Latin America and the Caribbean, the evolution of credit quality, and the relationship between rating changes and the cost of accessing external financing as reflected in the behavior of sovereign bond spreads. We apply an event study to estimate the impact of credit rating changes on sovereign bond spreads in the past fifteen years. We find that the impact is asymmetric (with a larger impact for downgrades) and is sensitive to both spatial and temporal clustering. The results suggest that the quality of sovereign credit is important in determining the cost of access to private external financing.

Journal Article - Link (English) - 2015

The role of China in the world economy has grown substantially in recent decades, turning it into a strategic trading partner for much of Latin America (bilateral trade totaled US$120 billion in 2009). This article analyzes the income elasticity of the region’s exports to China. The findings show that assuming a GDP growth in China of about 7% per year, the value of Latin American exports to China (at 2005 prices) can be expected to increase by an average of 10% per year between 2014 and 2019. In a more conservative scenario of 4.5% average annual growth in the Chinese economy, exports would rise by about 7% per year.

Journal Article - Link (English) - 2014

Determinants of economic development and especially the linkages between economic development and logistics performance are topics of growing interest within the literature, both in economic growth theory and maritime studies. This article presents estimations of different probit models in an attempt to explain the probability of a country being economically developed based on a number of traditional explanatory variables (including natural endowments, economic openness, and institutional framework, among others), along with logistics performance. The main finding shows that logistics performance is closely related to the probability of a country being developed.

Journal Article - Link (English) - 2012

In recent decades global and regional economic growth has significantly transformed the maritime transport sector, ports, and logistics. Increasingly larger ships are being used for container transport, which strategically impacts port planning and related activities. Historical data shows that large vessels on major trade routes are reaching South American coasts more quickly. This paper aims to predict when the largest current vessels (average 13,000 TEUs) will regularly arrive in South America. Using models with variables such as maritime trade, global economic activity, time spans for vessel appearance and coastal characteristics, it is estimated that these large vessels would likely reach South America regularly between 2016 and 2020. These findings underscore the importance of efficient medium-term port planning to maximize economic benefits for the region.